|
|
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.. |
| This research presents a systematic and unified approach to evaluating forecast rationality that considers the potential of nonstationarity in forecasts and realized values. The approach is applied to one-quarter ahead U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock price forecasts from 1982 through 2004. Results show that forecasts and realized prices are integrated of the same order, and those that are nonstationary are cointegrated. However, the stationary price forecasts for hogs, turkeys, eggs, and milk are biased and improperly scaled, and forecast errors tend to be repeated. Similarly, nonstationary forecasts for cattle and broilers are also biased and irrational in the long run, but short-run dynamics are rational. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Forecast evaluation; Livestock prices; Rationality; Livestock Production/Industries; C53; Q13. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6658 |
| |
|
| |
|
|
| Frank, Julieta; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: HPR; New information; Rationality; Two-limit tobit; USDA announcements; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; C24; Q13. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45046 |
| |
|
|
| Frank, Julieta; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| We re-assess the effect of new information contained in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on the rationality of the announcements. We find that HPR preliminary numbers are irrational estimates of the final numbers and market expectations before the announcements are also irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Based on these results we modify the conventional measure of new information entering into the market (i.e., announcement - market expectation), and incorporate final estimates and the market’s best forecast into the analysis. Results show modest statistical differences between the conventional and modified measures of surprise; however some economic differences, as large as 27 cents/cwt, emerged. We also find that, as expected, marketings... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: USDA announcements; HPR; Rationality; New information; Two-limit tobit. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37573 |
| |
|
|
|
